I will take the home favorite in this game. Not only is Mack Brown 7-0 vs. Tech at home, but he's 21-5 following an open date. I think after getting beat by Oklahoma State it's exactly what this team needed. Now it will be back to the drawing board and back to the game plan that got them in position to contend in the Big 12. That game plan is running the football and allowing Case McCoy to be a game manager that will take some shots down field to keep a defense honest. McCoy had 3 INT's in his last game and when this Texas team does not turn the ball over they win games. It helps that the Red Raiders only have 7 interceptions on the year while being -12 in TO margin. You just can't back a team that turns the ball over 28 times on the season. The Longhorns meanwhile are +7 in TO margin with 23 forced and it will be a major advantage for them in this game.
More importantly Texas can get back to what it does best which is running the ball. They are 5-0 when they rush for more than 4 yards per carry which seems like a given on Thursday night. The Tech defense has been decimated in the last 4 games allowing more than 5 ypc in every one and over 275 yards rushing in every game. They just are not very good at stopping the run and there is no way around it. Texas has been cold at times running the ball but they average over 5 yards per carry at home. They struggled in 3 of their last 4 games because they played top 25 defenses. TCU is ranked 13th in ypc run defense, Oklahoma State 18th, and West Virginia is in the top 25 in run defense in their own building allowing just 3.5 ypc which is where Texas played them. Tech comes into this game ranked 82nd nationally and is allowing 5.8 ypc in their last 3 games overall.
Now Tech's passing offense is elite, however it's only because they throw so much. Tech's OL continues to shuffle guys and will be challenged by Texas' defensive front which is ranked 11th in sack %. They are also 26th in opponent QB rating and 49th in yards/attempt. Texas can be inconsistent and have to come up with a way to stop TE Jake Amaro, but with the extra time and Mack Brown being a very good coach when it seems like the world is against him always seems to come up with a win.
